“Laura Chinchilla, the first woman president of Costa Rica, is expected to continue many of the policies of Oscar Arias, but with her own nuances.

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Given the country’s strong new economic team, growing FDI inflows, the dynamism and diversification of the export sector, and responsible anti-cyclical fiscal and monetary policy, we recommend overweighting Costa Rica in the short part of the curve.” Alejandro Grisanti, Emerging Markets Research, Barclays Capital.

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Some of the important items noted in this May 2010 report are:

  1. Costa Rica’s “strong new economic team.”
  2. The fact that “Costa Rica has the lowest public external debt as a percentage of GDP (11.4%) among the Central American and Caribbean countries…”
  3. Barclays Capital expects “Costa Rica to grow at 4.2% in 2010.”
  4. “The monthly index of economic activity (IMAE) published by the central bank shows growth of 6.1% y/y in the first quarter of the year and 5.9% m/m in March, confirming the upward trend that has been in place since September 2009. The increase has been driven primarily by the manufacturing sector, which grew 13.6% y/y. We have updated our growth outlook to 4.2% y/y in 2010 and 4.7 y/y in 2011.”
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  6. “Another good sign is that Costa Rica is increasing its capital inflows, as evidenced by the strong currency appreciation of 13.2% since September 2009. In this regard, total FDI inflows have grown an average of 10.2% since 2000, currently at USD1.3bn, or 4.5% of
    GDP. For this year, we expect FDI to finance 100% of the current account deficit.”
  7. “… exports continue to grow significantly, up 13.5% y/y so far in 2010. Since 2001, exports have grown at an average annual rate of 8%, representing one-third of GDP, with strong diversification of exported products and destinations (Costa Rica exports 4,080
    different products to 153 destination countries).
  8. “The key to success is the country’s qualified workforce…”
  9. “Costa Rica’s educational system ranked twenty-sixth worldwide, the highest in Latin America according to the World Economic Forum.”

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Premium VIP Members can download the 4 page May 2010 Barclays Capital report from the Download Library here.

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