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As expected and previously blogged, the tourism stats do not lie and are a reflection of the economic downturn in US & Europe, especially in terms of timing. I expect to see maybe a flat period through the early months of ’09 and a decrease in late ’09 over the same period in ’08 before seeing any type of steady upturn & only if the new Rescue Plan “actually achieves” even 50% of what it is “supposedly” set out to accomplish in the next 18 months to at least hold unemployment below the 10% mark.
You are being quite optimistic. I work on a daily basis watching the S&P500. Techincal indicators are giving some depressing direction potential. The stock market preceeds the rest of the markets by about 6 months. If we see a precipitous fall of the DOW in the next few months, the rest of the world will have its fall about the end of 2009.
The rescue plan is seen as woefully insufficient by many economists. Five to six trillion dollars is the predicted cost of getting out of this mess. If that amount is not available quickly, and then applied intelligently, then we simply do NOT get out of this mess for a generation. Kiss Costa Rican tourism goodbye.
Edited on Jan 25, 2009 11:39
Spending your way out of a pinch may have worked in the past… but Uncle Sam’s credit cards are maxed out… our “friends” in Asia and the Middle East are getting concerned about buying our debit… and poor Uncle Sam is hauling too much baggage these days in the form of a society that thinks they’re owed a life.
I hate to say it… but there’s some VERY rough road ahead. And even if things do improve in a year or two (or ten)… folks aren’t going to have the money to jump on a plane and enjoy a vacation in CR. I guess the only good news is (if there is any) is that folks are learning to save again… next we’ll see folks recycling every scrap of waste and planting victory gardens… but I guess the old saying that history repeats itself isn’t all that far from the truth.
Edited on Feb 17, 2009 20:54
It is my generation, the boomers, who felt we were owed a living. We are done with our time running things. Now we will, if we can, fade into retirement.
Talk to young people in college right now and you will get a different picture. They seem to expect hard times because they are already finding out that there are no jobs for them after graduation. Yeah, Costa Ricans may have seen their hayday of tourism come and go by the end of last year. And that might be the LEAST of their problems.
It may be overly optimistic Sprite and I know that. As an owner of a construction company an an architect, I am well aware of how long it takes for the federal procurement process to conclude in an actual award of contract. It is virtually impossible for the government to deliver a designed project to construction start within 24 months, let alone 18. However, if the they would adopt a privatized deign-build or GCCM process like many school districts, universities or medical facilities utilize, a private company could deliver results within 6 months. This is my biggest issue with federal spending on construction/infrastructure, which would be the most impactive employment boost in conjunction with science & technonogy spending. Microsoft (our local tech. dynasty) has recently announced a net 2,500-3,000 layoff, however, they also froze their 8 current construction projects in Seattle alone, which affect a number = to their layoffs in $60,000+/year (in Seattle) construction jobs. It is the “blue” collar impact that rides along with the “white” collar impact.
The domino effect. We have only seen the first few dominos topple. Imagine one of those domino set ups where one row branches off into 5 rows, each of which branch off into their own 5 rows…and so on and so on. If you don’t stop the first several dominos from falling over, you end up with a cascading and unstoppable event. I get the uneasy feeling we are witnessing the onset of what the Chinese curse referred to as “interesting times”. Call me a nutbag but I am starting to read up on survival gardens just in case.
Costa Rica has a year round growing season.Edited on Jan 25, 2009 17:13
If the housing market semi-recovers we are there with you! In the Pacific NW it has not been as down (10%) as bad as AZ, CA or NV at close to (30%). But we are all shedding jobs and construction firms are in survival mode, including ours. Bankruptcies are up 82% in WA, so if one can survive, competition will be depleted; a market correction. Those of us left will be able to get higher margins. The dichotomy is that lines of credit are extremely cheap @ 3.49%.
We too are involved in the sustainable property (including construction materials)approach with edible landscaping and no physical connection to any utility. I have a british counterpart, who is also a sustainable architect/contractor from Penzance, Lands End.I am in the AZ market, albeit a very small and desirable area and my work is also in your field. But I do see the beginnings of some opportunities. There is still a lot of big and intact (real) money in our area and my competitors are going down like flies. I absolutely agree that this mess is far, far from done. But – fortunes both large and small have always risen from ashes. I am being very agile and coloring way outside of the lines professionally and stayin’ alive!
With no new building going on and a continuing population growth – at some point……..
“With no new building going on and a continuing population growth – at some point……..”
Perhaps rioting?Au contraire…..I don’t see rioting on the horizon. What I meant is that the severe contraction in new building will mean a big need for new construction at the beginning of the recovery. And while things are going to get very bad, there will be an eventual recovery and hence, real opportunity for new housing investment.
As much hysterical hype as there was about the “economic good times without end” there will now be more of the same about the “end of the world as we know it”. This is going to be a long, tough haul, but doable. The Americans who are my friends and neighbors have just as much grit and guts as their parents and grandparents. We are hardworking, innovative and stubborn. We might be a little worse for wear when we get through, but we’ll get through.
You must be a relatively youthful person so full of enthusiasm and confidence in people. Optimism can be useful when there is at least a modicum of pragmatism. Unless you have experienced the world as it goes through a crisis of the magnitude expected this time around, you have no way to know how much grit and guts will be required nor any way to know if your neighbors have what it takes to come out of this mess in better shape than they went in.
This crisis will probably end one day. The Dark Ages did. But there is no guarantee it will end. And nobody can say with any certainty as to when it will end. In the meantime, it doesn’t hurt to keep a plan B at hand JUST IN CASE the optimistic version doesn’t work out as planned.
Hardly….I am one of those Boomers so often disparaged on this site as greedy and entitled. I’m not sure what Boomers are being discussed. Everyone I know have worked their tails off all of their adult lives. Almost all of us are self-made and further have parents and grandparents who all survived the Depression and passed on the values learned during impossible circumstances. Certainly very few of us will emerge from this crises better off than when we started. My confidence in my peers comes from my experience of them. They work hard for their families, their local and larger communities and serve in one or more charities. We have raised children who are smart, innovative and pretty tough.
The Dark Ages – please…let’s get this crisis in context…of course it will end. While the how and when are not clear, this is not a crucible that will destroy the United States. Here is a good plan B….rely on ourselves, our friends and our larger community. Serve more, not less. Be better, have more honor. This isn’t optimism, just the same belief system that has carried me through difficult times throughout my life.
What a simple plan: serve more, have honor, work hard. What has the average American worker been doing the last 40 years? The U.S. still has the most efficient work force. What good has it done him? Nothing has changed in the American character. In fact, it is the American character which has brought this mess upon us. And you seem to under estimate the seriousness. Forty percent of the world’s wealth has vanished in the last five quarters. This is unprecedented. You have no historical back drop in order to make a comparative analysis.No foreign nation is destroying us. It comes from inside our own culture.
I applaud optimism when it is directed towards individual aspirations and outlooks. Affecting the welfare of an entire nation and culture is beyond the parameters of an individual’s efforts. Take care of yourself and maintain your morale and your dreams and if the country in which you reside is not conducive to those ends, move on.
Costa Rica was my plan B long before the current crisis came along. It is even more attractive now than it was three years ago when I began.
Edited on Jan 28, 2009 04:40
Edited on Jan 28, 2009 04:44
This financial devastation is grotesque, but hardly unprecendented. One need only look at the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth to find equal calamity. Consumerism has certainly infected us, but I believe the patient will eventually recover.
Character is what we display in terrible, not easy times. We were appalled by the way we were represented by the last administration. We were utterly and completely opposed to the war. But our only child was already in the military, serving in harm’s way in both theaters of war. Her honorable service in impossible situations was an indicator of her character.
We see small and persistent acts of quiet heroism all around us. We also think that financial bad times aren’t the worst things than can happen.
We love Costa Rica and hope to live there someday. But it isn’t our Plan B to bail during these tough times. I hope in my small way to have something to contribute going forward. We are about to be challenged as individuals and as a country in ways we never imagined. We are being given the finger by the departing “financial masters of the universe” as they exit stage left – carrying their bonuses AND our bailout money. What they need is a good butt-kicking, but short of getting my hands on them, I can at least strive never to BE them.
We think we’ll hang out here for a while and do our best to contribute. I guess I’ve always wondered how I’d behave if I had to deal with some of the things my parents did. Here’s my chance, huh?
The patient will survive? There are levels of survival, some of which are worse than death. Too many Americans believe erroneously that we are an exceptional people and incapable of failure as a coutry. That is a form of cultural bigotry and nationalistic in the extreme. I have always been leary of flag waiving patriots no matter what country they call home. Many of these people are the first to put on a uniform and start killing for that flag of theirs.
We are no better and no worse than the rest of the world population when it comes to “guts and honor”. And many other cultures and empires have fallen into the dust never to rise again. It is naive to believe that could never happen to us.
I am saying here that having a plan B is the prudent thing to do as our country begins to fall over the edge.It is much more sane than declaring that you will go down with the ship when you are not even the captain of that ship.
Edited on Jan 28, 2009 10:41
Edited on Jan 28, 2009 10:44
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