Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
Well hello Scott and CR friends, I hope none of you are burning through packs of cigarettes and taken to hitting the bottle yet, hopefully not ever but reality is reality and human nature is exactly that. Not to encourage bad habits but coincidentally, SIN stocks are an excellent refuge in recessions, those mainly being tobacco, alcoholic beverages, guns and SEX, yes SEX. Throw in the pharma business too, it can be a lucrative place to invest in down times. First, are we in a recession? Many believe so, many do not, we shall see shortly for sure. Other safe havens: being in cash is a good choice right now, Swiss francs are an option, a solid agro ETF is an option. Take note of Latin American markets, of course China. Think globally! There’s always a bull market going on somewhere! 😉 Going forward a good commodity ETF could come in very handy and Japan may be back strong in 2008. In any case it’s good to remember the market goes in both directions and also key here, we are in the last yr of the US presidential term and the Reps have lost major ground with the war issue and the main issue has now turned to the ECONOMY, how very interesting. A rescue or at least a perceived rescue might do wonders for the Rep party (gosh forbid). One has to wonder if the recent cuts and coming cuts accumatively along with the following psychological effects will eventually kick in and create a rally(s) Markets have tended to soar after downturns. Of concern is just how far the USD will go down, it is a very dangerous game as has been warned by France and China, an economic war could be disastrous. How schizophernic is it to see Mr. MASSIVE credit himself try to scare people into not carrying so much credit card debt, save more and live within one’s means? The only thing I am sure of is that the 30yr fixed mtg rate is very attractive and may get even better! Refinancing naturally might be a very good idea and save a lot of people from disastrous current mortgages! And finally, where’s the bottom? It’s anyone’s guess. Time to revert back to the basics, most of all rule #1: Don’t lose when investing!(for many, no doubt the reminder comes too late) Note here that I do not claim to speak as an expert or anywhere near it, I am basically a socio-economic hobbyist, voracious reader and lover of Costa Rica! Best wishes in ALL aspects of your lives! Chuck C
You have made some very valid points, several of which I have come to the same conclusion. My post today is if anyone can tell me how soon after the referendum vote the results are expected and will be announced? I’m planning on being there to witness a very important part of CR’s history and I need to determine how long I should be there. The results factor in greatly as to whether I will make my move to live there or not, thanks a mil!
Chuck
I currently have no intention of trying to engage in market timing for I know full well that I don’t have the preparation to do it effectively….it’s funny though because I recently received a warning from my plan administrator accusing me of market timing after I re-allocated my portfolio…..can’t win for losin….no pun intended
maybe you can pay for a letter that times the market for you? Also you said, “To be honest I probably take on more gold, CR land and junior miners than I should! But I like the ride… ” I hope you never take up gambling (in jest). Most likely, for one who makes comments like that, the money is not the issue but rather the game is, the sport of it all…
I am a “staunch indexer” mostly because that is what I learned when first exposed to investing. Of course I read the Bogle, Siegel, Malkiel books and was indoctrinated into that approach early on. A prime part of that indoctrination is that “it is almost impossible to time the market, so why even try?” Furthermore, we live in a country of “convenience.” Is it any wonder that indexing is so appealing to so many who find investing either intimidating, a mystery, nerve-racking, difficult, too time-consuming, confusing etc etc all the while being referred to as “the lazy man’s porfolios?” This laziness is someone else’s opportunity, believe it. On another note, yes, the market has always worked in cycles and anyone who didn’t expect a correction was highly naiive, greedy, careless or in denial. After these past two weeks, I will gladly admit that it would appear that a combination, hybrid, passive/active approach is a more effective plan and throw in some alternative investments too. The key is, you need to know what you are doing and IF you can time the market, you could do damn well, of this there is no doubt but for sure it is much easier said than done, at least on a consistent basis. Buy and hold should realistically read, “buy and hold*” As far as the GOLD market, there is so much propaganda, hyperbole and head games along with the constant fluctuations going on that most get shaken out rather easily, this is all part of the game since there is actually only a limited amt. of the actual stuff available to begin with. One constantly comes across advice that GOLD should comprise no more than 10% of your portfolio, I always laugh as it invokes memories of childhood games. Oh, and for those “buy and holders” that believe that indexing is ultra-safe and that you can’t take significant losses, you are without a doubt highly misinformed and deceived for the concept of risk/reward applies every bit as much here as with individual stocks, trust me on this one. And by the way, asset allocation and diversification are both relative to the quality of the assets you choose to begin with… you get the point. Finally, yes, GOLD can be a good hedge and maybe even more than but thank goodness for Costa Rica….and affordable land, at least while it lasts! 😉
One can’t help now but wonder how much of what is going on is part of the intentional game and how much is not. On one hand you have this type downgrade on a major player and then on the other you have all these top money mgrs re-iterating their bullishness on stocks! Right now, I believe GEO-POLITICAL events present the biggest threat to our investments, a factor that the investor has very little control over, if any, especially at a time when the markets appear to be being manipulated for political reasons. Wait! Can markets be manipulated? jajajajaja
China dangling all types of enticements (see:MASSIVE USD reserves) and the real doozy….a PetroChina refinery right in Costa Rica, to serve all of Central America. CR just dumped Taiwan like a bad date, jumping to kiss China’s a_s. Several others suddenly have likewise denounced Taiwan to kiss China’s a_s. What a crying shame! Hmm…CR is anti-war, anti-military, is very DEMOCRATIC and peace-loving, it’s Nobel-winning Pres. speaks out against weapons/arms trafficking. Someone pointed out that China (see: COMMUNIST) is one of the world’s largest arms traffickers, supplying cheap (price-wise) weapons to many rogue regimes. Hmm, let’s see, massive human rights violations, worker enslavement, censorship, massive environmental destroyer, the biggest violator of copyrights and patents costing the US and other countries MASSIVE losses in revenue. Let’s not forget tainted food, toothpaste, bogus/tainted supplements, medicines and other health-care products. Their newly found influence should not be underestimated, especially when armed with seemingly-unlimited money reserves (in USD) that they acquired patiently as the US took the bait, swallowing “hook, line and sinker” going into massive debt to China. No doubt they are trying to get CR not to ratify the TLC with the US by offering everything imaginable (see limitless USD reserves), including the kitchen sink because of their own need and incredible demand for food and natural resources. Seems the mania is spreading like wildfire to the leaders of the other Central American countries also. The writing on the wall couldn’t be any clearer. What the heck is the US doing in a war in the Middle East? Time to get the frig outta there like yesterday!
Seems US Americans may be getting a feel of what the Ticos are going through since China’s recent decision to start utilizing some of it’s massive USD reserves. An example is it’s recent $USD 3 Billion stake in prominent US private equity firm, Blackstone Group. It has China watchers wondering which American companies are next on Beijing’s shopping list! A common joke heard all over the US as of late is about why the hoards of Chinese are visting the US lately “as if they were here picking out their spots since they pretty much already own the country!” Parents in NYC and other cities have been sending their children to Mandarin lessons for yrs now, the writing has been on the wall. Also it is no secret that many parts of China are overcrowded and there still exists a stifling restriction of human rights and censorship of which all of the sudden there is very little being said. Seems those drunken on the massive investment rewards being made have forgotten that it’s still very much a human rights violatorand does things like infringing massively on coprights through pirating, costing the world massive amts of potential revenue. This week again we were reminded of the massive hacking problem that comes out of China (reeked havoc in CR last week). The recent news reports (which China claims is all political propaganda) about pet food poisonings and the recent cough medicine poisonings in Panama that killed many people along with the current reports of poisoned toothpaste with radiator fluid in CR, Panama and the US probably will have little effect on the investment frenzy despite US warnings of a China bubble which China claims is further political propaganda. One thing for sure, the numbers don’t lie and the frenzy continues, communist or not. Let it be known that I am not supporting nor knocking investment in China by any means. It is individual choice. See attached article:
If I may chime in on the subject I´d like to make a brief comment on the spelling question. A lot of the ¨bad spelling many times is done ïntentionally, very similar to the ïnstant message¨ or internet type of spelling used by English speakers. I have also observed through the years that many tend to spell as they speak (voleto instead of boleto or barias instead of varias, hayga instead of haya and so forth). There are also many bad spellers in rural/farming communities who were not able to attend much schooling due to the need to help their families work the farms/fields. No difference whatsoever than in the US or many other countries.
BTW..I’m heading down to check out that southern region from Dominical on down at the beginning of May and will certainly go inquire in person. A good, full-service regional hospital is exactly what is lacking to service all of the new development. Having served in a medical profession for my whole career before retiring, to me it was an essential first step to be able to draw civilian and business investment and am very happy to hear that it’s being addressed.
There has been considerable talk and news reports of a new international airport around the Palma Sur area for a couple of yrs. now and of course it is now well known that there are several developments of various types including beach high-rise bldgs. going in. From news reports, the location has already been established for the new intl aiport that will serve the southern regions including Panama. This certainly sounds like it’s going to happen and not just a long-standing rumor as is common in the country for major projects.
