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Scott, just for my understanding, you mentioned that you “have personally monitored” over 200 sales since late 2006. Please define “monitor”. How does one become a monitor of real estate sales? Does one who monitors real estate sales in CR get paid a fee or commission to monitor? Are there other monitors in CR? Is there a licensing involved? Accreditation?
We don’t have real estate “monitors” here in Canada (that I know of) and I am just trying to get a handle on what they do precisely. Reason I ask is that there might be a possible opportunity up here (or in other countries) for potential monitors.
Normita, you are partially correct. Except, I never claimed to be an expert. I merely claimed to have a viable dissenting theory.
I have done plenty of work in CR real estate both personally and professionally.
I have many times said that Scott is a bright guy. He definitely has many valid points and theories. I just happen to have a different one on this topic. Scott’s theory on CR real estate starts from a micro view and moves to the macro. Whereas mine is the opposite…macro to micro.
I merely asked you to apply some critical thought to each view and not just take anyone’s word on anything.
American’s appointed George W. to run their country…not once but twice…he’s writing a book and I’m certain it will sell more copies than Scott’s. You see where I am going with this. Nevertheless, I have read Scott’s book and it is quite insightful. However, the debate here is one of economics, not how to buy CR real estate.
I’ve also asked you to at least acknowledge Scott’s vested interest in promoting the CR real estate market and my lack thereof.
Lastly, I too am involved in real estate everyday and have executed hundreds of real estate transactions…just on a much larger scale. The last deal I executed was $25.3MM. I do claim to know a little bit about a little bit…but certainly no expert. Just because I have not shared an Imperial with 15 developers in the central valley does not mean I do not understand what is happening at a macro level…where I believe it starts.
At the end of the day its only Scott’s opinion vs. mine. Think about each critically and make your own decision. I am not in any way asking you to prescribe to my theories…I am merely presenting and defending them. I ask you not to take this so personally.
I will chalk it up to coincidence. It was the timing and the fact it had never happened before that made me think otherwise. But again, no big deal.
Imxploring, I enjoy intellectual discourse on various topics in this forum…save religion and personal matters. Economics is my passion. I certainly don’t know it all but I struggle to sit by idly “drinking koolaid” when I feel that I have credible contrasting theories that I think may benefit others.
I certainly do think there is good news on the horizon for both the US and CR. I just think its a little further out (in most markets) than many of the members on this forum.
I think the difference between me and many of the contributing members here on this forum is that I look at things from a very black and white perspective, the deal either makes sense today or it doesn’t, be it personal property or investment property…at the end of the day I don’t personally know many people who would willingly take a loss on/pay too much for a property. Whereas, many of the members likely view CR as paradise-like escape from their normal existence in their country of origin…a place to vacation…a place for R&R. Both views are totally acceptable. Most of my comments would be geared to the people who are wondering if now is the time to buy or if they should rent for a spell before making their decision. Obviously you know where I stand…things will get worse before they get better. But they will get better…everywhere.
Weird. My username and password are saved in my computer so its the same thing every time…yet after you made the discussion personal I couldn’t log on for a 24 hour period…using the same method as always. Must have been a mere coincidence…sorry. Doesn’t really matter in the end.
ed, as one who has been condemned and even banned from the forum for a dissenting perspective it is gratifying to see supporting evidence by such a reputable publication…as opposed to merely taking one individual’s word for it, who ironically has a vested interest which he does not publically acknowledge.
Just one other item ed, is it your practice to make disparaging remarks about a member providing valuable input to other readers while you provide no valid content on the topic of your own? Just curious.
Scott, I agreed with Normita…it is certainly atypical (uncommon). But like I said…we’d be foolish to think the same pressures are not present at all price points. Different buyers…same financing tools.
Normita, you are correct, a $2MM property is definitely atypical. However, the stress applies at all price points. Clearly there are people that leveraged their assets at home, bought properties at various different price points (including the $200k range) and now owe more on their house than both assets are worth combined. Norma, I am glad you were not one of these people but they are out there…and in numbers. I personally know several of them and their situation is unfortunate but reality. I receive several fire sale emails about similar types of properties each week.
Agreed. Discretionary cash has vanished. Boats, RV’s vacation homes, vacations themselves…they’re all the same.
We have owned property there. We do not right now. But intend to in the future.
Like you, we will look for opportunity in the US right now but will someday return to CR.
In addition, like all of you, I too do in fact love that small but beautiful country and fully understand why all expats whom have chosen to live there have done so.
Imxploring, the developments we are focused on have proven a 100 year water supply which well encompasses our investment horizon. There are several water projects in the area and the city sits on a major aquifer which will be tapped at some point in the future, at a premium I am sure. Nevertheless, 50 years ago Phoenix wasn’t in the top 50 of America’s most populated metropolitan areas…today its 5th. Certainly there are rough times ahead for America, in many different facets. But lets remember, this is America and through times of weakness comes opportunity.
2BNCR, nice call! Brilliant to sell the CR assets and put it back into distressed US assets. CR is a great country and a lovely place to be…but yet still a tertiary real estate market at best.
For those wishing to invest in USD…there are several US markets that are attractive.
2BNCR, I appreciate your support for a dissenting opinion. Sometimes I find that critical thinking is an all too scarce ability. Its no wonder the world’s in the mess it is.
And yes…among other things…77 does represent my year of birth. Why do you ask?
Imxploring…the market my firm works in is the greater Phoenix market. We have a very specialized strategy and thus far it seems to have been doing very well. We are in the process of raising $45MM CAD and the fund has been very well received thus far. Judging by some of Scott’s comments, he knows the precise nature of our fund. Annual cash on cash returns north of 20%.
Now I know what you are thinking…”Phoenix? That’s one of the foreclosure epicenters.” You are correct. However, they were one of the markets that led the US into this mess…and they will lead the housing recovery. If any of you have access to the Cromford Report (I am in no way associated with this group) it is loaded with factual analysis of MLS data.
2BNCR, I think you nailed it. Scott is a bright guy. No question. However, he controls the forum…he created it. And as such he has the right to mute any deviation from his best interests.
I clearly send a message to members that indicates they should wait before making a purchase as I think prices are getting better (in certain parts of the country). I provide what I believe to be solid reasoning for my arguments but because I have not shared a plate of gallo pinto with developers in the central valley…I should not be taken seriously.
Obviously my views are not going to help Scott turn that 67 into 70. So Scott decided to make the discussion personal and then ban me from the forum for a day. That I can live with but considering that I have broken none of the forum’s rules in my posts, I think it may say something about its moderator.
Imxploring, I for some strange reason could not log on yesterday…very strange…I tried to log on just like every other time in the past…except yesterday for some reason…no go.
I understand why you would like your question answered. However, in following the rule of the forum, I cannot as it may be construed as marketing for the company I work with. What I can say for certain is that there is A LOT of smart money moving into certain parts of the US…and my firm is included in that movement.
If you would like further information please provide me your email address and I would be more than happy to discuss our investment strategy in greater detail. Unlike the CR market, there is an MLS system in place and plenty of empirical evidence to support our objectives in our chosen market. You don’t have to merely take my word for it…ask prices and sale prices are tracked and can be proven…
