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Norma, I am merely trying to provide another side to the real estate story in CR. I do not post anything against the rules…unlike the moderator. Nonetheless if you wish to deem my comments as pissy or immature by all means…you are free to do so.
Norma, just for your information, I have traded over $800 million in real estate across the western world thoughout my career. I have worked for some of Canada’s largest real estate companies and have been what I would consider…somewhat successful at what I do.
Unfortunately, neither Scott nor I can prove what is happening to sales prices due to a lack of MLS system in CR. But don’t discount my opinion just because Scott says that prices have not dropped in the central valley…I have nothing to gain by my comments. I have no motive…unlike Scott, I am sharing my experienced opinions without motive. Nevertheless…time will tell.
And if you recall…I never said buying CR real estate was a bad idea…I just think there are better returns to be had elsewhere.
Edited on Apr 09, 2009 14:55
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! Doug, are you out of your mind? Comments like that will get you a foot fetish or something…
I actually had no idea what you were talking about until I did a google search.
You forgot to mention my desire to meet a 9 foot 9 inch Cambodian with fire engine red hair taking a dump while running at full speed. I’d like to meet a person like that too.What about meeting a guy that claims to work 15 hours a day and runs a website but is so rattled by one of his website members that he goes perusing MySpace and uses against him, off the cuff remarks made in jest by that member years ago…and then makes a defamatory remark on his own website implying that the member’s comments on Myspace from years ago are in fact an “obsession”.
You also never mentioned my desire to meet any guy that runs a website promoting a certain country and yet calls himself an unbiased investment advisor…with a straight face.
That’s a pretty wild comment Scott given the subject…but I guess if you make the rules…you can break the rules. May I remind you of your own rules:
Slander and defamation are criminal offenses in Costa Rica and not civil offenses which means that people can be locked up for saying things that are considered slanderous or defamatory so please remember this if you see that a comment has been deleted and aren’t sure why.Scotty, are you rattled? You seem to be out of sorts. I’ve never seen you grasping at straws like this. Shame, shame Scotty.
Edited on Apr 09, 2009 14:52
Precisely. Scott is allowed to have his opinion…as are we…even if we are sitting up here in the frosty north.
Scott you seem a little over sensitive. I am not hell bent on discrediting you. I am merely trying to understand your motives and relation to the information you disseminate.
Please elaborate on your comment about my line of work and how I probably know more about foreclosures than you do.
My points are that if things are utopic in the central valley, they certainly are not on the west coast…particularly in Guanacaste. Furthermore, any realtor in that region has a clear motive for putting a positive spin on their market views. My last point is that you, as an investment advisor, must at least acknowledge a realtor’s motive for unsubstantiated optimism and thus should take that potential bais into account when digesting the information you get from them. Don’t forget…after all…these people are salespeople.
I’m sorry if you view my comments as “pissy” they are not intended as such…however, your lashing out seems more like a defense mechanism to me more than anything.
22 pages of foreclosures? Would any of those be in the utopic central valley? Probably not eh?
Scott, I think for the most part you are playing on a technicality to keep a positive spin on the market. The way I see it is that you repeatedly assert that asking prices have not lowered, particularly with regards to the developers you recommend. However, what you don’t seem to ever address is the correlation between high prices and slower sales.
Unless there is only one foreclosure per page on those 22 pages, it seems as if the foreclosure market is alive and well in CR as well.
Ummm. Not sure you have ever really said that. My understanding is that you assert that there may be some “firesales” but as a whole the market is not moving downward while I have repeatedly challenged that thought. Forgive me if I have been arguing in concert.
A web posting by one of the largest brokers in Guanacaste.
MARKET TRENDS- APRIL 2009
The Guanacaste-Beaches Market is experiencing a slow down is sales leading to a buyer’s market with properties spending more time on the market with plenty of time for buyers to find the property of their dreams. As high season turns to low season later this month, we expect sales activity to decline only slightly as serious buyers love this time of year in Guanacaste. Many buyers are waiting to see what happens with the world economy, which may mean that they may make out better with prices trending downward; but they also may miss out on the unpredictable bottom and some of the great deals that we are seeing now. Costa Rica’s economy remains healthy and foreclosures here are mostly non-existent as risky lending practices never took hold here. Costa Rica ended their fiscal year 2008 with a budget surplus!
List prices are dropping slightly, but low offers are being more widely accepted by sellers as they realize that significant and easy appreciation will take longer than expected, unlike the good old days. Also, the predicted boom in development (see development map) and the associated price hikes are further out on the horizon, awaiting healthier credit markets. Sellers are more willing to accept 10-25% off the sales price and are more flexible on terms and financing. Some distressed USA sellers are now entering the market due to financial and lending problems back at home. This is a great time to buy, if Costa Rica is your long term goal, as some of the speculators and undercapitalized investors bail out! Some really large development parcels can be had now for significant discounts.
I just don’t get it Scott. I have been involved with Guanacaste (primarily) real estate for several years (certainly not an expert) and I can say with certainty that many of the brokers I have been dealing with, have confirmed that SALES prices (not ASKING prices) have indeed fallen as a result of a much lower number of total sales and a higher proportion of distressed sales or “firesales”. Five years ago there was no such thing as a “firesale” in CR…today I receive ten to fifteen new firesale listings a month from various Guanacaste brokers.
My post was intended to stimulate conversation on how a change in the world’s reserve currency might impact CR real estate from an investment perspective…not the migration habits of any given race or nationality.
My thoughts on the “time out” theory are a little different. I agree that the slow down is welcomed and necessary for sustainable development in that great country. Nevertheless, I don’t think this is a short term “time out” but rather a complete downshift in gears. I think we went from overdrive to second gear in one swift and abrupt correction. A “time out” implies that we will resume an ascent at some point in the not too distant future. I believe that this is just a correction of pricing and that it could take an entire decade (likely less) for things to resume any sort of sustained upward trend.
My reasoning is fairly simple; capital is tight now and will remain relatively tight (or at least reasonably conservative) for the foreseeable future…and much of the CR boom (CR was not alone. Places like Roatan have completely fallen off the map at this point) was fuelled by loose credit in the US. We will NEVER again see such irresponsible/loose credit conditions (cross your fingers). It is no coincidence that as the foolish lending in the US has come to a screeching halt CR sales numbers are down by a minimum of 50%.
So although there will always be “real buyers” (one’s with cash who needn’t leverage their purchase abroad through a financial institution in their native country), the “false buyers” (those who used their homes like ATMs to finance their vacation property) have all disappeared and they won’t be back. However, they will be replaced by a younger group who were originally priced out of the US real estate market and now have the ability to take advantage of incredible affordability and over time watch the value/equity of their home grow. Fortunately, (or unfortunately for CR) they will not be able to use their homes in the US as an ATM as credit approvals will be strict. And even if they do qualify for additional credit…the looming inflation (possibly hyper-inflation) in the US is going to drive rates through the roof from late 2010 or early 2011 through to 2015 and thus it will become uneconomical to do so. Also, lets not forget to factor in the imminent diminishing of the USD due to the quatitative easing Mr. Bernanke has been cornered into.
Furthermore, until the equities markets show any signs of life, many of the “real buyers” will likely be waiting on the sidelines to re-coup a large portion of their net worth. Now I’m not equity market prognosticator…but I do possess a fairly large gut…and it feels that we’re in for a lengthy recovery…just to bring people back to or close to whole…forget profits.
Do I think its a good time to buy Costa Rican real estate? Yeah…its ok I guess…but I think it should be treated as a retirement or vacation home…not an investment as there are certainly bigger yields to be had elsewhere.
Scott the “facts” you were referring to in your first response, “Sales for many Realtors have declined dramatically – especially in Guanacaste – but so far real estate prices in Costa Rica have remained remarkably stable. I know of no area in Costa Rica where real estate prices are down dramatically across the board.
Facts are facts no? This is not “propaganda.” But if you believe that real estate prices have come down significantly, please feel free to show us those facts.”
Please don’t imply that those facts are now related directly to the title of the post when you were speaking about the facts of real estate prices. Clearly the propaganda I was referring to was the incessant denial of mass impacts on CR real estate by the current economic crisis.
Please don’t try to compare the two. One is in a developed nation…the other is not. The price is what it is for a reason…demand is sufficient for that type of property accompanied by first world amenities.
Holy crow Scott…are we supposed to accept your words as “facts” just because you said them??? That’s fairly presumptuous of a person who has a vested interest in propping up the price and/or desirability/image of real estate in that country. What you say here, can not be substantiated due to lack of a published reporting system, “but so far real estate prices in Costa Rica have remained remarkably stable. I know of no area in Costa Rica where real estate prices are down dramatically across the board.” Perhaps if realtors and real estate professionals in CR, who are self admittedly not busy these days, focused some of their energies on putting a published, MLS style system in place, your words could one day be considered fact…but until then Scott, your words are nothing more than your opinion, educated, biased or not.
What is fact Scott is this week I was sent an email titled “Flamingo Firesale” by one of the brokers I work with in that area. This is one of three emails I have received this week expressing a “fire sale” on a Guanacaste property. I think you are failing to acknowledge these type of sales…which is begining to represent an increasing proportion of the sales in that area according to my sources. And if we could speak specifically to Guanacaste, from the article many of the developments have come to a standstill…could this be why you haven’t seen prices fall? Is it because there have been no sales of that type of property? Nevertheless, if sales have dropped by 90% and distressed sales have increased by any proportion, prices are either ready to move south or already have, which has been my experience in that market over the last 6 months.
One question for you Scott that will enable the readers of this thread and your website to better understand if your words are fact or opinion; if prices in Guanacaste had hypothetically fallen or risen by 3% “across the board” in the last year, could you prove it?
