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Thanks very much Lotus!
Also, anyone have any information on the condition of the road between Quepos and Dominical?
El Hombre, no problem…please keep in mind that I do not consider myself an expert by any means. The thoughts I shared with you are simply that…my thoughts of what I might do if I were in your shoes.
Thanks,
Jarrett
Scott, I can agree with you…however, my reference to “flawed logic” was merely to point out that the assumption of history as the ONLY indicator of the future is tremendously short sighted (i.e. the price of real estate has never decreased in CR, therefore it never will). Yes that was a Tico, and yes he was completely over his head in his presentation to us.
We met with Minister Jorge Woodbridge and he was very insightful and honest in his thoughts on the future of real estate prices in the near and mid term. Scott you are correct in dealing with Tico land owners, their method of business may be very different than ours, it doesn’t mean its wrong…its just their norms…don’t fight it or you won’t get any business done. At the end of the day…the numbers have to work…they either do or they don’t.
What I can tell you is this; there have been many real estate transactions over the last 3 to 6 years (in Guanacaste) into highly levered American hands. Some of those owners need a way out and quickly. In fact, as an example, one of the pieces I am offering on right now, the current owner stands to take a material loss net of closing/selling costs, having only owned the property for less than 12 months.
My $0.02 is that this is just the beginning of this type of action (in that specific area). My advice would be to get out and buy during this time as if you sit around waiting for the bottom, all of the “A” Class assets will be absorbed and you will miss out on maximum future appreciation. I think there will be some real bargains over the next 12 to 18 months. Again, just my $0.02, take it for what its worth. Clearly Scott is more qualified than I to make any such assertions.
Edited on Oct 16, 2008 13:55
Scott if you find this inappropriate I appologize in advance and understand if you wish to remove it but…I have also heard that Rosewood has put their project on pause for the time being as well.
Scott, if the CR banks are not affected can you explain why they are not lending in the short term? There is capital out there but its much more difficult to secure than it was as little as 6 months ago.
El Hombre, my thoughts are this; you already own the dirt, your price is fixed. Given the slowing constrution industry, you may be able to capitalize on some lower construction prices…and I say MIGHT.
Nobody in CR thinks that construction prices will go down…however, there are very few who actually think that real estate prices could actually go down. We met with a project manager while we were in San Jose, his thoughts were simply, “Never in the history of Costa Rica have real estate prices decreased, therefore, real estate prices will always increase.” I ensure you it was a short meeting. Its this flawed logic that we see running through the community.
Guanacaste coastal sales have all but ceased…trust me when I say, there will be a material negative impact on the price of certain asset classes of real estate in this area. We are are uncovering all of the economic problems as we speak, it will take 12 months to even begin to understand the ramifications of those issues.
Back to your question though, it doesn’t sound like this is as much an investment for you as it is an alternative residence. If that’s the case, I would wait a 6 months and then start looking for build quotes. Just my $0.02. Hope it helps.
Thanks,
Jarrett
Scott, I agree with pretty much everything you said in your first post. I just returned from a two week stay in Guanacaste and San Jose as we (with cash) see this as a time of potential opportunity.
Yes! Some hotel projects have been put on hold because the tightening credit situation! Very True. 4 or 5 major Pacific Coast projects have been put on hold either temporarily or indefinitely.
Yes! A few projects have been cancelled because of lack of financing! Probably good to get these people out of the market…could definitely be a buying opportunity for those with cash
Yes! A few underfunded cowboys are gone! Thank goodness…Again, opportunity for those with cash.
Yes! There are few desperate sellers as there always are …True, but there are definitely more motivated sellers NOW than there were even as little as 6 months ago…and its going to get more pronounced on the Pacific coast over the next 6 to 12 months.
Yes! More aggressive offers are being considered especially on the Pacific Coast where there was more speculation but we have yet to see any serious across the board price declines. Stay tuned.
You say that Costa Rica is not connected financially in the same way as other struggling countries. This is true, but Costa Rica is not a self sustained entity. Any decrease in Intel`s exports alone are enough to make a shift in Costa Rica`s economic position. The following article reflects that although CR is not what you call financially connected to the disasters of the credit crisis, CR is dependant financially on the countries that are connected to the global financial woes.
http://www.hemscott.com/news/static/tfn/item.do?newsId=68240587904026
Scott, also please share your comments on the following article. I understand that this may be a market in stint but I would still like to hear your comments. http://www.homesoverseas.co.uk/news/buyers-property-market-in-costa-rica/17536
Thanks,
Jarrett
Edited on Oct 15, 2008 08:23
Sorry, I may have missed it but I am really interested in Scott answering Dockers questions. I think they are very important…as I often refer to this site as a source of what I consider decent information.
Scott, if you could be so kind as to answer the questions that would be greatly appreciated. After all, if there is nothing to hide, the answers to the questions could go a long way for you.
Scott said: Lastly, I do NOT personally sell real estate but certainly recommend people that do so nobody is giving me their life savings and as I have stated repeatedly, buyers need to do their own homework!
Sorry, I didn’t mean to suggest anyone was giving you their life savings, I was suggesting that they would be giving it to someone else based on your recommendation. I know you don’t sell real estate, however by your own admission, you are in the inner MOST circle it seems to me, you own real estate too so people need to be careful.
Scott said: “Lastly, I do NOT personally sell real estate”
You might not sell real estate, but you could be getting kick backs. Is your involvement with developers and realtors purely for charity and to add chapters to your book?
Scott said: “We have plenty of clients that do make real estate investments (multiple investments) based on my recommendation”
What is a client to you? Are these paying clients? In the above quote, can you tell us who “we” are? I thought this website was just “you.”
Scott said: “our VIP Members have purchased about 60 apartments in one project alone in Santa Ana through our Recommended Realtor”
When you said “through our Recommended Realtor” it begs a question. You recommended with absolutely no kick back at all? Zero? Just a matter of charity?
Scott said: “our VIP Members have purchased about 60 apartments in one project alone”
You are giving developers free leads? Very nice of you!!!! A lot nicer than many other people I might add. The realtor gets a 5 percent commission and Scott gets a thank you?
Scott said: “I do speak with dozens of Realtors on a weekly basis and have been a part of about 100 real estate transactions over the last 12-18 months”
I’m not sure how you have time to speak to so many realtors on a weekly basis, however when you say that you’ve “been a part of about 100 real transactions,” what does this mean? What is your “part?” Does the “part” you provide, provide you any income? To be honest, I wouldn’t be “part” of so much for nothing.
Scott said: “I know a lot more about them than just their Username so unless we already have an established, profitable relationship then you should do your own homework.”
Are you saying that you “profit” above? How do you profit?
To sum this up, I thought you were an operator of a website and an author of a book. Your words seem to suggest otherwise. I’ve not read too much on here lately (it has been a long time actually), but has your role changed?
The point is not equating CR to Rwanda but merely pointing out that while you complain about your current administration’s blunders the alternative turned a blind eye to such a tragedy.
In no way am I telling you that what GWB has done is right but I think either way…the US loses. I can’t wait for Barrack to take the oval office and turn the US into a protectionist state and ignore foreign policy…this will dismantle the US as we know it today.
My $0.02 says that the current crisis in the US today is the beginning of the end. The future belongs to the Chinese, Indians and to a lesser extent Russians and Brazilians.
Sprite, tell that to the countless Americans that got fleeced in an uncontrolled land acquisition in Costa Rica…
This is the group that I posted about last year.
They were very underhanded and extremely unprofessional.
I was looking at making a 15 acre purchase from them and they would not let me perform adequate due diligence via my legal counsel before wiring them $50,000 even though we produced for them our paid travel itinerary for two days later and could bring a check with us. A respectable firm would not put such undue pressure on their customers. Ends up they didn’t even own the land…they had a “JV agreement” with the land owner, however they would not send me the signature page to prove its execution. My attorney advised me to not work with this group.
This group is short on cash and have likely already spent your deposit on development costs, hence why they need to sell your lot before they can refund your deposit.
I feel for you! What project were you buying into? Scott’s advice is 100% true and very valuable.
I am not certain if “the monkey road” is the same as the “congo trail” but the condition of the road sounds similar. The road I am referring to is from the Flamingo area to Sardinal. There were rumors of this getting paved, I just thought that it may actually happen now. It would certainly cut down the drive time between Liberia and Flamingo.
As the US spirals further I would expect to see the number of Canadians buying in CR diminish as well. The only province that can whether that storm is Alberta.
Scott, just a question. Do you think Tamarindo is close to a buyers market? There is so much product there and the number of buyers has not increased at the same rate as the number of properties available.
