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hmmm… because you still think of “stocks for the long run” you will, like most people, stay in the market – it is not the sheep, or the crowd as I call them, that are moving into gold right now, quite the opposite. No, most people still think, like you, that this is a buying opportunity and the bull is intact, and indeed it might be, for a while. But why stress yourself trying to time the market? Relax, get some gold, move your dollars into Yen and let others scrape around for profits.
With the exception of mining/resource stocks, where I am still invested, I will move back into the broader equities market someday….in about fifteen years when we hit the bottom.
I’m not a market timer kind of person I like the long term trends and that makes me a bear on stocks. I buy gold for insurance and because there is so much that can’t be known about the markets these days. If it goes to $2,000 I will be happy, it if reaches $4-5,000 or better then great, it’s a bonus.
If only I had the same conviction about assets in 1987/88 I would have bought everything I could at Flamingo beach for $1.00m2. At $2,000m2 today that truly is a long term trend!
As much of a bear that I am, I also believe that the market could hit Kramers year end target of 14,458 but next year will be worse. With USD currency dilution running at a 13% annual click stocks could stay where they are and yet lose considerable value in real terms.
One more thing, if Scott will allow it. There’s a company in the U.S that offers a product called zero downside gold for those who are sceptical. The company is http://www.everbank.com . The product gives you most of the upside and no downside (principal protected). The funds are secured agaisnt the physical metal.
Just going with the odds; I liked gold at $275 some years back and I like it right now in the high $600’s. Probably when I dont like it, lets say at around $4-5,000 or higher, a lot of people will be loving it.
I dont recall Kudlow warning investors about this recent bout of turmoil and he won’t ever make a negative call on the market; his perma-bull mind set doesn’t allow for critical market analysis.
Of course, I am not qualified to make such recommendations on gold, but I dont have to be; if you want that you have to go to the licensed experts at Bear Stearns.
Apparently he read a copy of “Empire of Debt” that was sent to him; the themes therein are real and cannot be ignored even if the likes of Larry Kudlow would like to tell us what great shape the U.S economy is in.
BTW, for those who want protection, gold is ready for a breakout. Buy now it could happen in the next few weeks or so. Despite Central bank selling suppressing the price it can’t be held down forever.
Barclays Gold ETF is not bad and can be bought through Interfin directly…can I say that? I think I just did…
I agree that a calm adherence to strategy is the way to go and the strategy should be to get out of the market! Why would anyone would be in this market in the first place is beyond me; they should have been out months ago.
Having said the above it is entirely possible the indices could close above current levels by year end – it’s next year when the fun and games will really start.
Why take a risk with your money when the evidence points against stocks being a good bet?
I will go on the record and predict that the Dow Jones will be lower by the clsoe of next year than it is today….any takers?
Sprite – Actually the herd thinks the market is in a “goldilocks” state, it’s the contrarians that think the risk is to the downside. So by staying in the market you would be following the crowd (and Larry Kudlow who is as we all know right on the economy!)
Most investors have bought into the “investing for the long term” mantra sold to them by the big firms and that’s what they will do, all the way to the bottom.
Protect yourself, buy gold and silver and soft commodities.
Edited on Jul 30, 2007 10:32
This contract doesn’t specify when the funds have to be returned to the buyer after viewing if he/she wishes to cancel.
If the Paragon contract says the same I can see why people are having to wait to get funds back. If someone could confirm if the contract is the same it would be helpful.
Yes that was some disengagement!
The argument for being in Iraq is, according to Bush one of conflicting ideologies. He claims this is fight for our very way of life since these extremist Muslims want the West to live under strict Islamic law. The argument for going into Vietnam was the same type; if Vietnam falls to communism the whole region will follow and then we’re next; the Domino theory.
Did the communists win? No, the spread of communism theory turned out to be wrong; in the end communism was rejected without the U.S being present in Vietnam. But since we don’t learn from history we are destined to repeat the same mistakes.
You say history will repeat itself? If so great! Last time I checked South East Asia was a bustling hive of trade and commerce!
Edited on Jul 27, 2007 11:02
Edited on Jul 27, 2007 16:10
Roark – Whilst I may not agree with the general sentiment of your post I do think it’s important for alternate opinions to be voiced. I’m sure there are plenty of Bush supporters reading this forum who might be a little intimidated to go against the grain of what seems to be mostly Democrats or non- Bush supporters.
As regards “when America engages we win” I think not so distant history demonstrates the opposite, certainly in Vietnam this was not the case. When the U.S pulled out the region did not go communist and the domino theory was proven to be, well…just a theory. The same mentality exists today with the neo-cons believing they know the future and advising Bush to take pre-emptive action.
The genocide is inevitable at this point barring the U.N making a long term commitment and even then there’s probably not much they could do.
There can be no victory in Iraq; too many lives have been lost over a pack of lies. The Case for War made by Collin Powell was a farce, there were no terrorists in the country before but there sure are now. The British are responsible for the creation of Iraq, we forced the warring tribes to live together. Sooner or later it was bound to fall apart and the U.S removed the only thing that was holding the powder-keg together.
Lotus – there, we agree on something! It was indeed a sham – a point more than eloquently made by me in my post on Ali’s kebab vans! Whilst I am of course joking about the takeout kebab vans it is important to note how Collin Powell is now trying to distance himself from the whole affair as are all the other hypocrits like Hillary who voted for it. Give the crowd what they want then lie to them about how you will withdraw the troops. Shall we take bets now on how long it actually takes to get them out? A leaked report this week revealed how the Pentagon is already drafting a further two year occupancy plan…and so it goes on….
Diego – in light of recent postings in this forum I completely understand why you would feel the need to apologise for making your case with related issues like politics. But really it shouldn’t be necessary and there is no need to do so whether you have the consensus or not.
Edited on Jul 26, 2007 09:05
Edited on Jul 27, 2007 09:45
