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alfred,
I agree that our course was set quite a while ago. It is still unwinding and it just feels as though the unwinding will be a lot faster than the winding…a slow march to the edge and then a quick fall. But Scott and many others are unclear as to specific consequences. They offer the general prognosis of a terminal patient at the end of this current fall in the economy. How long will this fall last? What is Scott’s time reference? At what future date can anyone confidently say”We have hit bottom and we will never rise again?”Macro economics is just too complicated hence the various opinions out there from knowledgeable sources. There are two sides to this argument; we will look at this time in history as the moment we held off an inevitable end for another decade or more, or as the moment it all slid into the ravine and was washed away for good. I am still watching an inordinate amount of international trade, mostly on the export side due to a weak dollar. I am seeing american Tech companies holding their own, many even increasing their bottom lines. It is too early to write this country off for the immediate future. I would not, however, bet the farm on a continued U.S. dominance 15 years from now.
Edited on Mar 11, 2008 04:25
Edited on Mar 11, 2008 04:26
Things will get seriously worse, no doubt. And all great world societies eventually dissipate and fall from their leading positions while others rise to replace them. I am still not convinced, though, that the current crisis is the one which finally knocks this country down for good. All of the points you list are valid. The conclusion you reach might not be. I am less sure now than I was last year about a possible recovery but that might be due to the fact that we are just now beginning the deep plunge. If facts alone could tell us what was going to happen next, wouldn’t the market have indicated this by now? In other words, we won’t know we are in a melt down until it happens all around us. In the meantime, it is speculation. The economy is still functioning an dthe market s are still open.When the Dow hits 9000, I will panic. Until then, I will nervously watch.
Edited on Mar 10, 2008 09:34
buy now if you can. Consider it an investment and a way to diversify your portfolio. There will be a continuing cost to maintain the land in the form of minimal taxes and perhaps a small monthly amount to pay a local for care taking but I strongly suspect that real estate values will be going up for a while longer. WHO KNOWS how much the same piece of property will cost in 2020?
Plus, I can tell you from personal experience, owning your own piece of paradise can make you feel pretty good while you slog through the daily routine here in the States.
That is great to hear. I keep reading that besides the obvious factors contributing to health improvement such as exercise, diet and avoidance of drugs and alcohol, there are other positive things which are less obvious. Owning dogs, being happily married, removing the rushed pace of north american life styles, keeping engaged with people and good weather are some of them. Costa Rica has all of those things in spades.
It is of some interest to know how many and why. It may not be the most useful information but every little bit helps in understanding what is going on there.
You are preaching to the choir about the illegalities of the recent right wing flexing of its muscles. And you get no argument from me regarding the political stupidity and receptivity of fear mongering of the average american citizen. Where we part company here is at the point where you see massive incarceration of american citizens who wish to leave this “paradise”. First of all ,that ain’t good for business. And even if the government had the political will to withstand a firestorm of civil unrest, it does not have the resources with so much having been spent and being spent in Iraq.
As much as I distrust my government and lament the absolute lack of common sense in the typical american voter, I just cannot see anything like an emigration control policy ever coming about here in the U.S. My generation, the boomers, is the largest single block of voters right now. We represent a huge bulge of voters and there is no way any government is going to pass legislation which is contrary to such an essential freedom as emigration represents to a retiring demographic. To suppose such a thing could happen is pure fantasy.
Now, the taxman could always stir up all kinds of mischief in this area and make it a losing proposition to remove any assets to an offshore location. It’s almost enough to make a Ron Paul supporter out me, a long time liberal democrat.Whatever the number actually is and whether or not we will ever know for sure, this is information which I realize may not even be pertinent to my personal situation…or to anyone else for that matter. Like crime statistics, there are so many variables that have to be applied to each individual and that individual’s risk of exposure to the negative side of the equation, that it may be a useless piece of information.
I only referred to the 40% number which I have read at several online sources as a possible mitigating factor to the great quantity of expats who say they are moving to CR. I hope it is close to 40% after two years as this will cull out the wheat from the chaff so to speak.good point and one which I consider a lot. Passion can either be long lasting or short lived. All outside factors a side, “Know thyself” might be the salient point here. So far, nearly everything for which I have developed a strong passion has been long lived and I have stayed with them…my wife, sea kayaking, a love for dogs and several other things including Costa Rica. As long as Costa Rica remains faithful by staying beautiful and simple and attainable, I think I will stay connected.
No need to be to exact on this. Rebaregon has 6, David has 1….out of how many total?
I think an informal count can be tallied and only those expats who decided to leave for the specific reason that they didn’t like the conditions enough to stay should be counted. This is, after all, the only reason a count like this would have any value to those who are considering a move.
I have a brother who moved to Ireland 5 years ago. He is still there but warns me constantly of “surprises” that one never counts on when moving to another country. The specifics he lists seem inconsequential to me..things such as not finding a store open on Sunday or not being able to find peanut butter. Personally, I don’c consider these things, no matter how many compile over time, to be sufficient to make staying ina foregn country too uncomfortable.
But people are funny….very funny. I have read numerous postings by north americans who gave reasons for not liking CR which seemed just plain silly to me. I get the impression these people are never meant to wander too far from the place where they were born and have lived all their lives.I imagined population growth and movement of population into and out of Costa Rica would be a hard number to pin down for a number of reasons, hence the the reliance on anecdotal evidence.
Scott is in a business where he would have at least a feel for such trends if they exist.
The relative cost of real estate is dependent upon the movement of people. The problem with having a “feel” for a situation is that our feelings are heavily influenced by desires, hopes and fears and other personal interests. Have you ever noticed that once you are interested in a particular car model, you begin to see that model everywhere? So, of course, I take anectdotal evidence with a large grain of salt. But having nothing else to rely upon, opinions begin to weight more heavily. I think there has been a decidedly large increase in North Americans looking into the Central Valley for retirement in the last year…and it feels like it is snowballing.Edited on Mar 04, 2008 04:49
I read that about 40% of all expats return for good to where they came from after a few years. Others never really become full time residents and visit CR as an extended vacation place. I have no idea what the perfect mix of foreign nationals to natives would be for my tastes. I am just concerned about crowding more than anything else. In the last 25 years here in Miami, I have seen a depressing transformation happen before my eyes. The long lines in traffic and crowded state and national parks and beaches and the ensuing pollution has just been heart breaking to watch.
I hope my CR property can keep the rural ambiance it has right now. But I am only about 20 minutes out of San Ramon and every time I go back, there is more development and more land for sale…and more north american faces all over town.
There is also a smaller, spring fed pool with a water slide in a privately owned park in a very small pueblo named Palmitos, about 20 minutes from San Ramon. I am pretty sure there are others scattered around the area as well.
