Never Waste a Crisis, Hustling the Swine Flu Pandemic

“Rule one: Never allow a crisis to go to waste. They are opportunities to do big things.” Rahm Emanuel, Obama White House Chief of Staff

Some friends have helpfully passed along information to me lately about how to protect myself against swine flu. Information on how to avoid colds is pretty easy to find, and I rarely get them. Never the less I appreciate my friends’ concern for my family’s well-being, and for that of humanity in general. However, what we really need in situations like this is information on how to avoid fear mongering propaganda.

I am deeply suspicious of the trustworthiness of my government and its ability, or even its desire to protect me. My skepticism is based on the unquestionable fact that the government lies to us all the time. With that skepticism in mind, I’m also suspicious of why such a hoopla is being made of the “pandemic” of swine flu.

A major clue that the “crisis” is really a power grab is the involvement of the Department of Homeland Security. How did they get in the health care business? They are experts at keeping airplanes free of styling mousse and feeling up our womenfolk. The DHS is the last outfit you would charge with protecting your health, or containing a communicable disease.

However, when you look at the agency’s unstated purpose, it becomes more obvious why it would be involved in the swine flu “pandemic.” The main job of the Department of Homeland Security is to keep us scared and obedient. A pandemic is a near perfect crisis for promoting that objective.

People thinking for themselves evaluate their risks and the cost involved in avoiding them. Government agencies like DHS do not need to make such evaluations, because they are not paying the costs. And the risks, no matter how remote, are what they use to scare us into thinking they are protecting us. It is only governmental thinking that can so far separate risk from cost that we find ourselves in a near panic over catching colds.

If we simply look at the numbers, I’ve already wasted more time writing the first five paragraphs of this column than the dangers of swine flu would justify.

The world is full of things more dangerous than swine flu, not the least of which is the United States government itself, which at this very moment has over a million non-violent citizens locked up in some kind of prison for consuming harmless herbs.

The simple statistical probability of contracting swine flu at this point shouldn’t be keeping anyone awake at night.

The count as of this morning of cases in the U.S. is 286. Nobody has died, except the baby who came in from Mexico to Texas early on in the show.

As everyone except the government must evaluate risk and cost in determining our behavior, it’s time for one of O’Boyle’s Big Statistical Oversimplifications, (OBSO).

There are over 300,000,000 people in the United States. So far your odds of contracting swine flu are 286 divided by 300,000,000. That would be close enough to one in a million that we can use that figure with some confidence.

World wide, your chances of staying healthy improve. There are 6.5 billion people on this rock, more or less, and 1000 confirmed cases. That would put your present odds a about one in 6.5 million. And with 25 confirmed deaths, your odds of not surviving infection are about one in 260 million, somewhat worse, apparently, if you live in Mexico.

For comparison here are some unlikely ways of kicking the bucket, which are still much more likely than succumbing to swine flu. The numbers are from a website of questionable authority, I’m sure others can be found that dispute them, but these are probably at least as reliable as a major news network or the CDC.

For the benchmark long-shot death, being struck by lightning, your lifetime chance is 1 in 5000, this year it’s 1 in 700,000. Probably worse if you golf. Your odds of being murdered are 1 in 18,000. Your odds of dying of any kind of injury are 1 in 1,820. Or how about these: Death by falling, 1 in 20,666, drowning, 1 in 76,000, in a fire, 1 in 81,000, all many times more likely than death by swine flu.

Using world statistics, you are twice as likely to be executed than to die of swine flu. You are, however, slightly less likely be killed by falling airplane parts or from the ignition or melting of nightwear. I’m sure that last one would vary considerably depending on the company you keep.

I am many thousands of times more likely to die of things like spoiled tacos, drunk drivers, stray bullets, or angry Rotweillers. I just can’t work myself into the state of terror the media and the politicos are looking for. It makes me wonder what the agenda really is.

World wide there were nearly 2 million deaths in 2007 from tuberculosis, a highly contagious disease. Somehow the CDC decided not to go to their level 6 emergency response against TB or to declare it a “pandemic.” The Department of Homeland Security has somehow overlooked the TB crisis. Nobody is wearing face masks to keep from getting a communicable disease that annually kills more than 2,000 times as many people as have yet even contracted swine flu.

The slogan of governments and this one in particular is “Never waste a good crisis.” And all crisis is good. Emergencies of all kinds are opportunities to expand power and influence. Nothing illustrates that fact better than the arrival of the undie pawing drones from Homeland Security to save us from the sniffles. What most astonishes me is that anyone who has ever been through a an airport checkpoint would think Homeland Security could possibly be of any help.

Written by VIP Member Hal O’Boyle who fled New England in the seventies for Key West, Florida. He settled there because the road ended and local legend had it that large, sodden bales of marijuana floated up onto the public beaches at night. The bale tales were greatly exaggerated, forcing him into business to secure reliable supplies of pizza, beer, and bullets.

He spent thirty years in Key West ending up, like everyone else, in the real estate business. In 2005 he moved to San Jose, Costa Rica, where he now lives with his wife, two teen aged sons, mother-in-law and three big, muddy dogs.

When not home schooling the boys, he writes his provocative, refreshingly incorrect observations of government, society, politics and culture.

He is the author of “Democracy: The Painted Whore, an Extremist Explains War, Drugs, Guns, God, Gold and Santa Claus.”

Enjoy the spectacle and folly of the War on Drugs, the War on Terror, the War on Education, the War on Privacy, the War on Anonymity, the War on Common Sense and the War in Iraq from the comfort of your own bar stool or Lay-Z-Boy.

Buy your copy before DHS bans it. It makes a better gift than a bottle of cheap hooch and you can always say you thought it was a guide to New York brothels.

Andrew Makarik

to@welovecostarica.com

Andrew Makarik is the main editor of WeLoveCostaRica, a fan of this sunny country. He is also a loving husband and a has a lovely daughter. By being a devoted family man and the biggest Costa Rica fan, he wants to make more people feel at home there. WeLoveCostaRica unites people and helps them find new home or a new travel destination. This website is a friendly community where everyone can find not only information, but also new friends and travel pals. Andrew is also passionate about IT and programming, so he himself maintains a friendly atmosphere in this cozy environment of WeLoveCostaRica.com.